This study examines the role of risk in sustainable tourism development through an integrated approach, in which risk is conceptualized as a mediating variable transmitting impacts on the economic, social, and environmental outcomes of the destination of Ha Long Bay. Data were collected from 398 valid survey questionnaires using a five-point Likert scale and analyzed with advanced quantitative techniques, including Cronbach’s Alpha, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The empirical results indicate that management, planning, and legal risks exert the strongest influence on aggregated risk, followed by environmental pressure and tourism overcrowding. In addition, natural disaster and climate change risks as well as socio-economic risks, although exhibiting relatively weaker effects, remain statistically significant, highlighting the multidimensional and interconnected nature of risk at the destination. These findings underscore the critical importance of integrated risk management in enhancing the long-term sustainability of tourism development, particularly in coastal and heritage destinations experiencing rapid tourism growth..
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